BJP denies party tickets to 99 sitting MPs: Can it be the cause for history repeating itself?

1. Summary: BJP faces 100 “Silent Mutinies”

As the final phase of the Lok Sabha elections set to take place tomorrow, 19 July 2019, intra-party conflict that can adversely affect the prospects of any party has seldom been discussed in any media. The focus of the coverage has been on the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) versus myriad alliances of the opposition, Prime Minister Modi versus Wannabe Prime Ministers etc.

At the time of going into the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, BJP had 267 sitting Members of Parliament (MPs) in the Lok Sabha.[1] Out of these 267 sitting MPs, BJP replaced/denied party tickets[2] to about 99 sitting MPs i.e. over 37% of the sitting MPs. No other ruling party in independent India had denied party tickets and/or replaced sitting MPs in such a large scale.  This virtual purge of a large number of sitting MPs has not resulted open revolt, unprecedented in Indian politics.

BJP denied party tickets to 2 out of 2 sitting MPs i.e. 100% of sitting MPs in Andhra Pradesh, 9 out of 10 i.e. 90% sitting MPs in Chhattisgarh; 5 out of 7 i.e. 72% of sitting MPs in Assam; 12 out of 24  i.e. 50% of sitting MPs in Madhya Pradesh, 13 out of 26 i.e. 50% of sitting MPs in Gujarat; 2 out of 5 i.e. 40% of sitting MPs in Uttarakhand, 2 out of 4 i.e. 50% of sitting MPs in Himachal Pradesh, 8 out of 21 i.e. 38% of sitting MPs in Bihar, 8 out of 22 i.e. 36% of sitting MPs in Maharashtra;  22 out of 68 i.e. 33% of sitting MPs in Uttar Pradesh; 6 out of 22 i.e. 27% of sitting MPs in Rajasthan; 4 out of 12 i.e. 33% of sitting MPs in Jharkhand; 2 out of 7 i.e. 28% of sitting MPs in Delhi, while BJP had insignificant number of MPs from Punjab, Telangana, West Bengal and Andaman & Nicobar Islands.

If the denial of party tickets to the sitting MPs has been decided based on winnability, the BJP looks most vulnerable in Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Assam, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat,  Uttarakhand and so on. BJP has not denied party ticket to any sitting MP in Karnataka.

Those who had been denied party tickets or replaced include 44 MPs who were elected at least for two-terms i.e. one 11-term MP (Lal Krishna Advani),  three 8-term MPs (Sumitra Mahajan, Kariya Munda and Sushma Swaraj); two 7-term MPs  (Dr. Murli Manohar Joshi and Ramesh Bais); one 6-term MP (Uma Bharati); four 5-term MPs (Ramsinh Pataliyabhai Rathwa, Ravindra Kumar Pandey, Ram Tahal Choudhary and B C Khanduri); six 4-term MPs (Rajen Gohain, Shatrughan Sinha, Haribhai Parthibhai Chaudhary, Sona Ram Choudhary, Bandaru Dattatreya and Kalraj Mishra);  nine 3-term MPs (Shanta Kumar, Bijoya Chakravarty, Kirti Azad, Gyan Singh, Dilip Kumar Mansukhlal Gandhi,Harishchandra Deoram Chavan, Bharat Singh, Virendra Singh and Bishnu Pada Ray) and seventeen 2-term MPs (Ramen Deka, Dinesh Kashyap, Kamla Devi Patle, Vishnu Deo Sai, Maheish Giri, Jayshreeben Patel, Mehsana, Prabhatsinh Pratapsinh Chauhan, Vitthalbhai Hansrajbhai Radadiya, Darshana Vikram Jardosh, Virender Kashyap, Jyoti Dhurve, A.T. Patil, Bahadur Singh Koli, Sadhvi Savitri Bai Phoole, Dr. Ram Shankar, Shyama Charan Gupta, Hari Manjhi and Om Prakash Yadav).

The denial of party tickets to the sitting MPs is nothing but writing political obituaries. Many BJP MPs may not have joined the opposition or have their children contest as candidate of the opposition parties like Congress candidate Manish Khanduri, son of Mr B C Khanduri. But, the “Silent Mutinies” by many of the sitting MPs who had been denied party tickets need neither be open nor necessarily make news in the headlines.

The real question is whether these 100 “Silent Mutinies” that the BJP has been facing in this Lok Sabha election can impact its electoral prospects.

Recent electoral experiences are instructive. While there were a number of factors for the defeat of the BJP in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan, there is no denying that the denial of party tickets to 43 sitting MLAs including four ministers out of the 163 MLAs i.e. about 26% of the sitting MLAs, in Rajasthan[3] and denial of party tickets to 49 MLAs including four ministers[4]  about has been one the critical factors for the BJP’s defeat in November 2018. If the results in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan are any indications, the 2019 Lok Sabha elections can be a case of déjà vu because of the denial of party tickets to 99 sitting MPs.

The Bhakts claim that BJP under Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Amit Shah has spread to more States to make up the expected loss of seats in Uttar Pradesh. However, it is pertinent to remember that prior to the May 2004 parliamentary elections, the BJP had formed the government in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan after the Assembly elections in these States in November 2003. These States are presently under the rule of the Congress.

The biggest challenge Modi-Shah face in this 2019 election is not from the resurgent Congress in the Hindi heartland or the Mahagathbandhan of the Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samajwadi Party and Rasthtriya Lok Dal in Uttar Pradesh or Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress but the “Silent Mutinies” within the BJP. None disputed then Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s leadership during 2004 and he led united BJP for its “Shining India” campaign. In comparison, there has been open challenge to the current leadership of the BJP. The real challenge to the Modi-Shah leadership though does not come from those above 75 years who have been benched but from about 99 sitting MPs who have been denied party tickets and whose political obituary has been written. The 2019 Lok Sabha elections therefore are not only about the BJP vs the opposition, it is as much about BJP vs BJP. If Modi-Shah leadership manages to form the next government after 23 May, the consolidation of the leadership will be cemented. However, if the BJP loses the election, the wrath of the Silent Mutineers will be out in the open.

Denial of party tickets  to 99 sitting MPs or over 37% of the sitting MPs is too significant to ignore in any election anywhere in the world. Watch out the result of these seats on 23 May.

2. Denying party tickets to 99 sitting MPs: Modi’s Vajpayee nightmare

The BJP rejects any contention that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has the potential to meet the fate of former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee of 2004. Its embedded media refuses to debate despite the universal consensus that the BJP shall not repeat its performance of 2014.

That the BJP has expanded itself under Modi-Shah is often the justification.

In comparison to Vajpayee, the biggest challenge Modi faces is not the resurgent Congress in the Hindi heartland or the Mahagathbandhan of the SP, BSP and RLD in Uttar Pradesh but internal fight over supremacy within the BJP. None disputed Vajpayee’s leadership during 2004 and he led united BJP for its “Shining India” campaign. However, there is open challenge to the current leadership of the BJP. The real challenge to the current BJP leadership does not come from those above 75 years but from 99 sitting MPs who have been denied party tickets and whose political obituary has been written. While the Bhakts claim that BJP under Modi-Shah has spread to more States, to make up the expected loss of seats in Uttar Pradesh, it is pertinent to remember that prior to the 2004 parliamentary elections, the BJP had formed the government in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan in November 2003. These States are presently under the rule of the Congress which faced anti-incumbency in these three States but still went on to form the government.

As stated above, the BJP had 267 MPs at the time of going to the current Lok Sabha elections[5]  including 68 from Uttar Pradesh; 26 from Gujarat; 24 from Madhya Pradesh; 22 each from Maharashtra and Rajasthan; 21 from Bihar; 15 from Karnataka; 12 from Jharkhand; 10 from Chhattisgarh; 7 each from Assam, Delhi and Haryana; 5 from Uttarakhand; 4 from Himachal Pradesh; 2 each from Andhra Pradesh, Goa, Jammu and Kashmir and West Bengal;  and 1 each from Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Chandigarh, Dadra and Nagar Haveli, and Daman and Diu.

3. List of 99 sitting MPs denied party tickets by the BJP

In the on-going Lok Sabha Elections 2019, the BJP has replaced/denied party tickets to 99 sitting MPs. Out of the 99 sitting MPs, the BJP replaced or denied to party tickets to 87 MPs including three MPs i.e.  Shatrughan Sinha, Kirti Azad and Savitri Bai Phoole joined the Congress while Ashok Kumar Yadav replaced his father i.e. sitting MP Shri Hukmdev Narayan Yadav of Madhubani constituency, Bihar. BJP denied party tickets to 11 other sitting MPs to adjust the allies by giving  five seats to the JD(U), one each to the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU), Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP), Apna Dal and Shiv Sena (BJP MP Rajendra Dhedya Gavit of Palghar joined the Shiv Sena).

Table 1: List of sitting BJP MPs denied party ticket

4. State-wise denial of party tickets to sitting BJP MPs

The State-wise denial of party tickets to the sitting BJP MPs include 2 out of 2 i.e. 100% in Andhra Pradesh, 9 out of 10 i.e. 90% in Chhattisgarh; 5 out of 7 i.e. 72% in Assam; 12 out of 24 i.e. 50% in Madhya Pradesh, 13 out of 26 i.e. 50% in Gujarat; 2 out of 5 i.e. 40% in Uttarakhand, 2 out of 4 i.e. 50% in Himachal Pradesh, 8 out of 21 i.e. 38% in Bihar, 8 out of 22 i.e. 36%in Maharashtra;  22 out of 68 i.e.33% in Uttar Pradesh; 6 out of 22 i.e. 27% in Rajasthan; 4 out of 12 i.e. 33% in Jharkhand; 2 out of 7 i.e. 28% in Delhi, while BJP had insignificant number of MPs from Punjab, Telangana, West Bengal and Andaman & Nicobar Islands.

If the denial of party tickets to the sitting MPs has been decided based on winnability, the BJP looks most vulnerable in Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Assam, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat,  Uttarakhand and so on. BJP has not denied party ticket to any sitting MP in Karnataka.

Table 2: State-wise denial or replacement of sitting BJP MPs during 2019 Lok Sabha elections

5. Electoral track records of the sitting BJP MPs denied party tickets

For those being denied party tickets, it amounts to writing their political obituaries.

Those who are denied party tickets or replaced  include one 11-term MP, three  8-term MPs, two 7-term MPs, one 6-term MP, four 5-term MPs, six 4-term MPs, nine 3-term MPs,  and nineteen 2-term MPs and 54 one term MPs who had won during the Modi wave in 2014 given as under:

The one term MPs denied party tickets in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections are the following:

1. Shri Gokaraju Ganga Raju, Narsapuram, Andhra Pradesh
2. Hari Babu Kambhampati, Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh
3. Shri Kamakhya Prasad Tasa, Jorhat, Assam
4. Shri Ram Prasad Sarmah, Tezpur, Assam
5. Banshilal Mahto, Korba, Chhattisgarh
6. Shri Kamalbhan Singh Marabi, Surguja, Chhattisgarh
7. Shri Lakhan Lal Sahu, Bilaspur, Chhattisgarh
8. Shri Abhishek Singh, Rajnandgaon, Chhattisgarh
9. Shri Vikram Usendi, Kanker, Chhattisgarh
10. Udit Raj, North West Delhi (SC)
11. Shri Paresh Rawal, Ahmedabad East, Gujarat
12. Shri Dilip M. Patel, Anand, Gujarat
13. Shri Liladharbhai Khodaji Vaghela, Patan, Gujarat
14. Shri Devajibhai Govindbhai, Fatepara Surendranagar, Gujarat
15. Shri Ashwini Kumar Chopra, Karnal, Haryana
16. Shri Raj Kumar Saini, Kurukshetra, Haryana
17. Ravindra Kumar Ray, Kodarma, Jharkhand
18. Shri Bodhsingh Bhagat, Balaghat, Madhya Pradesh
19. Bhagirath Prasad, Bhind (SC), Madhya Pradesh
20. Shri Alok Sanjar, Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh
21. Savitri Thakur, Dhar (ST), Madhya Pradesh
22. Shri Subhash Patel, Khargone (ST), Madhya Pradesh
23. Shri Anoop Mishra, Morena, Madhya Pradesh
24. Shri Laxmi Narayan Yadav, Sagar, Madhya Pradesh
25. Chintamani Malviya, Ujjain (SC), Madhya Pradesh
26. Sunil Baliram Gaikwad, Latur (SC), Maharashtra
27. Kirit Somaiya, Mumbai-North-East
28. Shri Anil (alias Padmakar) Gulabrao Shirole, Pune, Maharashtra
29. Shri Sharadkumar Maruti Bansode, Solapur (SC), Maharashtra
30. Shri Vijay Sampla, MoS, Hoshiarpur, Punjab
31. Shri Manshankar Ninama, Banswara (ST), Rajasthan
32. Santosh Ahlawat, Jhunjhunu, Rajasthan
33. Shri C.R. Chaudhary , Nagaur, Rajasthan
34. Shri Hariom Singh Rathore, Rajsamand, Rajasthan
35. Shri Hari Om Pandey, Ambedkar Nagar, Uttar Pradesh
36. Shri Bhairon Prasad Mishra, Banda, Uttar Pradesh
37. Priyanka Singh Rawat, Barabanki (SC), Uttar Pradesh
38. Shri Babulal Chaudhary, Fatehpur Sikri, Uttar Pradesh
39. Shri Ashok Kumar Dohrey, Etawah (SC), Uttar Pradesh
40. Shri Anshul Verma, Hardoi (SC), Uttar Pradesh
41. Shri Rajesh Kumar Diwakar, Hathras (SC), Uttar Pradesh
42. Shri Rajesh Pandey, Kushi Nagar, Uttar Pradesh
43. Shri Ram Charitra Nishad, Machhlishahr, Uttar Pradesh
44. Anju Bala, Misrikh (SC), Uttar Pradesh
45. Nepal Singh, Rampur, Uttar Pradesh,
46. Shri Satya Pal Singh, Sambhal, Uttar Pradesh,
47. Shri Sharad Tripathi, Sant Kabir Nagar, Uttar Pradesh
48. Krishna Raj, Shahjahanpur (SC), Uttar Pradesh
49. Shri Bhagat Singh Koshyari, former CM & MP, Nainital-Udhamsingh Nagar, Uttarakhand
50. Shri Janak Ram, Gopalganj (SC), Bihar
51. Shri Birendra Kumar Chaudhary, Jhanjharpur, Bihar
52. Shri Satish Chandra Dubey , Valmiki Nagar, Bihar
53. Shri Chhotelal, Robertsganj (SC), Uttar Pradesh
54. Shri Rajendra Dhedya Gavit, Palghar, Maharashtra
55. Shri Ashok Kumar Yadav (replaced his father i.e. sitting MP Shri Hukmdev Narayan Yadav, Madhubani, Bihar)

[ENDS]

[1] . Sixteenth Lok Sabha: State wise Members in selected Party available at and accessed on http://loksabhaph.nic.in/Members/StatewiseList_Party.aspx

[2]. Sushma Swaraj, Uma Bharti and Paresh Rawal announced that they are not contesting the election.

[3]. Rajasthan polls 2018: BJP denies ticket to 43 MLAs including four ministers, 19 November 2018, The Business Standard available at  https://www.business-standard.com/article/elections/rajasthan-polls-2018-bjp-denies-ticket-to-43-mlas-including-four-ministers-118111501128_1.html

[4]. Dissent in BJP ranks in Madhya Pradesh over denial of tickets for assembly elections, The Hindustan Times, 20 November 2018, available at https://www.hindustantimes.com/madhya-pradesh-elections/dissent-in-bjp-ranks-in-madhya-pradesh-over-denial-of-tickets-for-assembly-elections/story-IadarURi6giexAM9cGgeEL.html

[5]. Sixteenth Lok Sabha: State wise Members in selected Party available at and accessed on http://loksabhaph.nic.in/Members/StatewiseList_Party.aspx

[6] As per statistics available in the web page of the Lok Sabha at: http://loksabhaph.nic.in/Members/StatewiseList_Party.aspx